Forecasts of demand for fuels and energy in Poland and in the world

Abstract

The article presents the forecasts of demand for fuels and energy in both Poland and worldwide. The authors present and compare various development scenarios developed by recognized expert teams and original forecasts and predictions for the next years. The article presents the energy resources, the demand and supply for them, and the possibilities of their use in the following years. Special attention is paid to social aspects. As we know, the resources themselves do not guarantee their extraction and use. Strong pressure from environmentalists and local communities can block even the most economically viable investments. A classic example is lignite. The mentioned raw material is the source of the cheapest electricity in Poland, but the opposition of local communities prevents the development of new opencast mines, despite the fact that our neighbor from the West, that is Germany, is not facing such problems. On the other hand, it is inevitable that fossil energy resources will become depleted and alternative sources of energy will have to be used. Solar, wind, and water power, plus geothermal energy can be used for the needs of mankind - but not everywhere and not always; in fact, in most cases their use is not economically viable. Another source of energy is nuclear power. When the first nuclear power plants were built, it was predicted that electricity would be so cheap that it would be possible to use it for free. However, it turned out that although the production costs are not high, the investment costs are so huge, mainly due to security reasons, that many investments were not started at all, even though they were planned. In addition, several major accidents, especially in Chernobyl and Fukushima, are the reason why societies in many countries have developed a negative attitude towards this type of investment. One should be very skeptical about plans to build a nuclear power plant in Poland; while preparations have been going on for a very long time, no decision has been been made yet. The authors are waiting for the long-promised government document titled the Energy Policy of Poland until 2050 It should determine the directions of energy development in Poland and determine the actions to be taken in the next years. Looking at the government's actions, listening to the speeches of the minister and deputy ministers of energy, and knowing the potential of mining and energy industry in Poland, it can be assumed that coal will remain the main energy resource in our country. Modernization activities, consolidation of mining entities, and the worldwide increase in coal prices allow for an optimistic outlook. Also, investments in the energy sector, i.e. the new units installed in the Kozienice, Opole, and Jaworzno power plants, and the investments planned at Ostrołęka, will strengthen the future position of coal in the energy sector. Although the future is uncertain due to the increasingly stringent greenhouse gas emission standards, unknown prices of CO2 emission allowances under the EU ETS, and the European Commission's efforts to decarbonize the EU economy, the new energy units will be used for many years. However, the power produced in them may be more expensive. Nevertheless, basing the economy on the domestic energy sources guarantees greater energy security than the imported raw materials. This is particularly evident in the case of natural gas, convenient to use and responsive to electricity demand changes, which is very dependent on the political situation and definitely more expensive than coal. It is clear that the forecasts of demand for fuels and energy depend on a number of factors. Therefore the article presents various scenarios. Which one will turn out to be real? This question will be answered in the future.