Assessment of Global Copper Demand in the Context of Photovoltaic Development
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29227/IM-2026-01-01-001Keywords:
copper demand, photovoltaic systems, solar PV, energy transition, critical minerals, copper intensity, raw material securityAbstract
This article assesses long-term global copper demand resulting from the development of photovoltaic (PV) systems through 2050. The study applies a quantitative scenario-based methodology analogous to material-demand assessments used for energy storage technologies. Copper demand is estimated by multiplying the projected increase in global installed PV capacity by selected copper intensity assumptions expressed in tonnes of copper per megawatt of PV capacity. The analysis uses the global PV capacity reported by IRENA for 2025 as the historical baseline and applies a long-term DNV type PV deployment pathway reaching 6.5 TW in 2030, 13.0 TW in 2040 and 20.6 TW in 2050. Three copper-intensity scenarios are used: a low case of 3.0 t Cu/MWp, a base case of 4.5 t Cu/MWp and a high case of 6.0 t Cu/MWp. The results indicate that the additional PV capacity installed between 2025 and 2050 may require approximately 54.65 Mt Cu in the low scenario, 81.98 Mt Cu in the base scenario and 109.30 Mt Cu in the high scenario. These values correspond to approximately 2.4, 3.6 and 4.8 years of current global mine production, respectively, and to approximately 5.6%, 8.4% and 11.2% of current global copper reserves. The findings suggest that PV development alone is unlikely to exhaust geological copper reserves, but it will create a large, persistent and strategically important demand impulse. The study highlights the need for improved material efficiency, copper recycling, supply-chain diversification, responsible mining and better integration of raw material planning with global energy-transition scenarios.
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