Assessment of Global Lithium Demand in the Context of Stationary Energy Storage Development

Abstract

This report evaluates the long-term global demand for lithium driven by the rapid expansion of stationary Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) through 2050. The scope is limited to stationary storage (utility-scale and distributed) and excludes lithium demand from electric vehicles. Using a quantitative, scenario-based methodology anchored in the DNV Energy Transition Outlook, the study forecasts lithium requirements based on a market-driven trajectory where grid-connected storage capacity increases from 2.4 TWh in 2024 to 38.4 TWh by 2050. The analysis explores the impact of two dominant battery chemistries – Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC) – on material intensity. Using a base-case pack-level lithium intensity of 110 kg Li/MWh, the installed stationary storage fleet implied by the DNV market-driven scenario requires approximately 4.2 million tonnes of lithium metal (~22.5 million tonnes LCE) by 2050. Sensitivity cases spanning 90–130 kg Li/MWh yield a 2050 range of approximately 3.5–5.0 million tonnes of lithium metal (≈18.4–26.6 million tonnes LCE). The findings highlight the significant material pressures the energy transition will place on lithium supply chains and underscore the necessity of technological standardisation, improved material efficiency, and the potential role of alternative chemistries like sodium-ion to mitigate supply risks.