Method of Analysis and Assessment of the Impact of Variable Demand from Hard Coal Consumers on the Degree of Utilization of Mine Production Capacities

Abstract

The article presents the author's analysis of the utilization of the usable capacity of mines, which form part of a multi-plant mining enterprise, in conditions of variable demand for coal. The above analysis is based on Monte Carlo tools and is one of the elements developed by the author to rationalize production decisions for the management of a coal company. The presented forecast analysis variants include: • assuming the expected value and dispersion according to retrospective data; • the most probable forecast solution with a predictive formula; • the application of correlated required changes. These results are based on the proposed forms of histograms, inferences about the size of adjusted production capacities, which are taken into account on the market, both in terms of quantity and quality of coal, and forecasting and the probability of applying these changes.