The Method for Assessing the Impact of Variable Coal Demand on the Efficiency of Mine Operations

Abstract

The method presented in the article is based on Monte Carlo simulation and involves studying the impact of random demand fluctuations on the efficiency of mines and mine groups (companies). For random demand fluctuations, a normal distribution is assumed, and the analysis variants present-ed include: • Adopting the mean and variance values based on retrospective data, • Considering the most probable forecast error resulting from predictive formulas, • Taking into account correlated changes in demand. The results obtained are presented in the form of histograms of the degree of operational lever-age. These histograms allow for predicting how the degree of operational leverage of mines will de-velop, as well as estimating the direction and probability of these changes. The developed and veri-fied sensitivity analysis using real examples constitutes a useful element in rationalizing decision-making processes.