International Steam Coal Market and the Price Situation in Poland – Part I

Abstract

The purpose of the paper was to analyse steam coal prices of Polish producers with reference to the main spot price indices of steam coal from international markets. The research covered the years 2010–2019. Due to the complexity of the discussed issues, the article is divided into two parts. The first part discusses the European steam coal market, with a particular focus on Poland. The investigation has shown that for many years both the production and consumption of steam coal in OECD Europe countries was in a declining trend. In the case of production, the CAGR for the years 2010–2018 was -6.6%, and the average annual rate of decrease in consumption of this raw material was 3.0%. Not only has decarbonisation policy contributed to this decline, but also the growing share of renewable energy, and coal and other energy sources price ratio (reduction of the share of coal in a country's fuel mix). The main exporters of steam coal to the OECD Europe market in those years were primarily: Russian Federation (43–77 Mt/y with 26–46% share), Colombia (35–63 Mt/y; 21–31%), USA (11.0–36.0 Mt/y; 7–16%) and South Africa (6.5–26.5 Mt/y; 4–12%). In the years analysed, the production of steam coal in Poland amounted to 50.0–67.5 million tonnes per year (Mt/y). In 2012–2015, Polish production exceeded domestic demand for this raw material by several percent, and in the remaining years accounted for 83–90% of domestic consumption. Along with declining Polish production, imports of steam coal, which varied between 6–16 Mt/y, grew in importance.